The Dream have answered a five-game losing streak with five straight wins, but tonight’s game against the Aces is a better test of whether their turnaround is real. Atlanta enters the game fourth in the WNBA at 18–10. Las Vegas and Golden State are both 20–9, while Dallas and Indiana sit just behind Atlanta at 19–11. A win would move the Dream toward the league’s top tier; a loss could drop them back into the crowded middle of the standings.
The numbers suggest Atlanta has enough talent to compete with Las Vegas. Jordin Canada, Allisha Gray, Rhyne Howard, Naz Hillmon, and Angel Reese have produced a +18.1 net rating across 387 minutes. Las Vegas’ usual starting five of Chelsea Gray, Stephanie Talbot, Jackie Young, NaLyssa Smith, and A’ja Wilson has a +10.1 net rating across 267 minutes. Atlanta’s advantage begins on defense, where its starters allow only 94.6 points per 100 possessions. However, the Aces can replace Talbot with Jewell Loyd and produce a +18.7 net rating, powered by an offensive rating of 121.0.
The Dream rank fourth in defensive rating, allowing 105.0 points per 100 possessions, so I trust them on that end of the floor. Their offensive identity remains a work in progress. The Dream rank 13th in the WNBA in 3-point percentage at 30.9% and 11th in 3-pointers made per game at 8.1. They want to play a pace-and-space style but have lacked dependable spacing. Canada is shooting 27.4% on 2.6 3-point attempts per game, allowing defenders to sag into the driving lanes used by Gray and Howard. Gray is shooting only 31.5% from 3 herself, while Howard leads the starters at 35.2%. Te-Hina Paopao offers more reliable shooting at 36.7%, but she plays only 12.5 minutes per game and is dealing with a leg injury.
That is why tonight matters. Atlanta is only 1–5 against the three teams above it: 0–1 against Las Vegas, 1–1 against Minnesota, and 0–3 against Golden State. The lineup data says the Dream can compete with the league’s best. Their results have not confirmed it. Beating the Aces would not answer every question, but it would provide the clearest evidence that Atlanta’s winning streak represents real progress.